Xi approaches politics from a long-term strategic perspective, while Trump has little patience for long-term commitments. That mismatch makes meaningful progress unlikely, whether on trade, Ukraine, the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman, technology, or AI. Still, Xi will almost certainly provide the ceremonial grandeur and hospitality Trump enjoys, perhaps a quick Great Wall visit.

Will the major powers support a candidate capable of shepherding real change? Or will they prefer someone merely compliant? There is a real risk that with weak leadership, reform will stall for another decade. Combined with more funding cuts, the UN’s effectiveness would be eroded more severely than ever and the public's confidence could wane.